Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Monarcas are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Cruz Azul are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 30.8-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 49.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.2% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 71% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80