Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Monarcas are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Cancún are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 56.2-point power-rating edge (69.4 v 13.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 60.1% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 60% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
60.1%
Model confidence
60.1%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00