Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monaco · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Monaco are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLWLL), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Getafe are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Monaco hold a 13.1-point power-rating edge (53.2 v 40.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Monaco holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monaco
Probability
48.3%
Model confidence
13.5%
Monaco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00