Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Mirassol are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Gremio are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Gremio hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 47.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.2% in the Serie A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80