Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Flamengo · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Mirassol are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Flamengo are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDDWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Flamengo hold a 20.9-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 66.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 15.1% in the Serie A, while Flamengo holds the strongest overall chance at 62% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Flamengo
Probability
61.8%
Model confidence
15.1%
Flamengo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40