Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Mirassol are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Cruzeiro are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruzeiro hold a 6.1-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 51.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.5% in the Serie A, while Cruzeiro holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
14.5%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80