Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bahia · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Mirassol are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Bahia are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Bahia hold an 8.7-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 53.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.4% in the Serie A, while Bahia holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bahia
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Bahia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20