GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 4/18/2026, 11:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Phoenix Rising · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Miami FC are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Phoenix Rising are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Phoenix Rising hold a 2.9-point power-rating edge (43.5 v 46.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.7% in the USL Championship, while Phoenix Rising holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Phoenix Rising

Probability

34.7%

Model confidence

34.7%

Phoenix Rising has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Miami FCDDWWD

GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Phoenix RisingWLDDD

GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Miami FCPhoenix Rising
40.0Attack42.1
46.7Defence54.4
36.7Form38.6
43.5Power46.4
1.16xG1.24
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