GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Miami FC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Las Vegas Lights are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DDWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and las Vegas Lights hold a 7.1-point power-rating edge (43.5 v 50.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the USL Championship, favouring a draw with 14.0% confidence, a 53% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

29.2%

Model confidence

14.0%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Miami FCDLLWW

GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Las Vegas LightsDDWWW

GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Miami FCLas Vegas Lights
40.0Attack45.6
46.7Defence52.6
36.7Form45.6
43.5Power50.6
1.19xG1.36
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