Miami FCvs
Hartford Athletic
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 4/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Miami FC are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Hartford Athletic are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Hartford Athletic hold a 2.4-point power-rating edge (43.5 v 45.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.9% in the USL Championship, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80