Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Metz · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Metz are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Guingamp are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Metz hold a 14.5-point power-rating edge (65.2 v 50.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.6% in the Ligue 2, while Metz holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Metz
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
16.6%
Metz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 6 · avg 3.20/1.20
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00