Mercedesvs
El Porvenir
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera C · 7/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Mercedes are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.40 conceded, while El Porvenir are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DDDLD), averaging 0.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Mercedes hold a 7.4-point power-rating edge (54.2 v 46.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.1% in the Primera C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 14% BTTS chance and 8% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
53.1%
Model confidence
53.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
GF 1 · GA 2 · avg 0.20/0.40