Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Melhus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-1
Melhus are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 3.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Nardo are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Melhus hold a 32.2-point power-rating edge (69.7 v 37.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 79.3% in the 3. Division - Girone 2, while Melhus holds the strongest overall chance at 79% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 91% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Melhus
Probability
79.3%
Model confidence
79.3%
Melhus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 18 · GA 8 · avg 3.60/1.60
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80