Matonensevs
Grêmio Catanduvense
COMPLETEDBrazil · Paulista Série B · 5/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Matonense · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 4-0
Matonense are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (WWL), averaging 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Grêmio Catanduvense are 0W-0D-3L in their last 3 (LLL), averaging 0.67 scored and 3.33 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 6 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Matonense hold a 58.7-point power-rating edge (62.1 v 3.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.1% in the Paulista Série B, while Matonense holds the strongest overall chance at 94% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Matonense
Probability
93.6%
Model confidence
17.1%
Matonense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 1.33/1.00
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.67/3.33