Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Matonense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Matonense are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 3.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Assisense are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Matonense hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (62.1 v 50.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.0% in the Paulista Série B, while Matonense holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Matonense
Probability
65.5%
Model confidence
12.0%
Matonense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 19 · GA 3 · avg 3.80/0.60
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80