Matagalpavs
San Marcos
COMPLETEDNicaragua · Primera Division · 8/16/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Marcos · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Matagalpa are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 3.00 conceded, while San Marcos are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and San Marcos hold a 19.7-point power-rating edge (11.2 v 30.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.9% in the Primera Division, while San Marcos holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
San Marcos
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
13.9%
San Marcos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 15 · avg 0.40/3.00
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00