Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Marítimo are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Bolívar are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Marítimo hold a 5.6-point power-rating edge (56.5 v 50.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 28.5% in the Segunda División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 22% BTTS chance and 14% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
28.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00