Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Marítimo are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Aragua FC are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Marítimo hold a 3.5-point power-rating edge (56.5 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.3% in the Segunda División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 16% BTTS chance and 8% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60