Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marseille · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Marseille are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Nimes are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Marseille hold a 29.1-point power-rating edge (67.8 v 38.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.7% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Marseille holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Marseille
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
51.7%
Marseille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40