Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maritimo · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Maritimo are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Machico are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Machico hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (58.9 v 64.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.6% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Maritimo holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Maritimo
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
14.6%
Maritimo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60