Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maritimo · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Maritimo are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Casa Pia are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Maritimo hold a 37.7-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 42.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.9% in the Primeira Liga, while Maritimo holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Maritimo
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
12.9%
Maritimo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60