Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maritimo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Maritimo are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Camacha are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Maritimo hold a 43.5-point power-rating edge (58.9 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.2% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Maritimo holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Maritimo
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
13.2%
Maritimo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00