Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maritimo · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Maritimo are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Academica are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Maritimo hold a 27.5-point power-rating edge (58.9 v 31.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.7% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Maritimo holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Maritimo
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Maritimo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00