Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VPS · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-2
Mariehamn are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while VPS are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWD), averaging 4.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and VPS hold a 32.9-point power-rating edge (21.8 v 54.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.0% in the Veikkausliiga, while VPS holds the strongest overall chance at 71% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
VPS
Probability
71.2%
Model confidence
16.0%
VPS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 23 · GA 4 · avg 4.60/0.80