Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ilves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-2
Mariehamn are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Ilves are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Ilves hold a 26.7-point power-rating edge (21.8 v 48.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 66.3% in the Veikkausliiga, while Ilves holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ilves
Probability
66.3%
Model confidence
66.3%
Ilves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20