GGOALVIO

Brazil · Serie D · 4/18/2026, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Marcílio Dias are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Sao Jose are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Marcílio Dias hold a 3.9-point power-rating edge (54.5 v 50.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.6% in the Serie D, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 13% BTTS chance and 6% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

56.6%

Model confidence

56.6%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Marcílio DiasDDWLD

GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Sao JoseLLLDD

GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Marcílio DiasSao Jose
33.3Attack23.5
73.8Defence74.5
50.0Form45.1
54.5Power50.6
0.55xG0.34
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