Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Maranhão are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Caxias are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Caxias hold a 6.1-point power-rating edge (49.0 v 55.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.7% in the Serie C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 16% BTTS chance and 8% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
53.7%
Model confidence
53.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60