Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maracanã · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Maracanã are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Moto Club are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Maracanã hold a 22.8-point power-rating edge (60.8 v 37.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 55.8% in the Serie D, while Maracanã holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 21% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Maracanã
Probability
55.8%
Model confidence
55.8%
Maracanã has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00