Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Malaga · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Malaga are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Leicester are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Malaga hold a 21.7-point power-rating edge (64.7 v 43.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.8% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Malaga holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Malaga
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Malaga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20