Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mafra · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Mafra are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Alverca are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Mafra hold a 40.7-point power-rating edge (67.3 v 26.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Mafra holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mafra
Probability
50.9%
Model confidence
50.9%
Mafra has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60