Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Lund are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Ariana are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lund hold a 15.0-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 21.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Lund holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lund
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Lund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80