Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lujan · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Lujan are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Claypole are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Lujan hold a 21.8-point power-rating edge (61.6 v 39.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 24.9% in the Primera C, while Lujan holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 21% BTTS chance and 23% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lujan
Probability
62.8%
Model confidence
24.9%
Lujan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00