Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lugo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lugo are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Coruxo are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDWLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Coruxo hold a 20.9-point power-rating edge (47.1 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Lugo holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lugo
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
13.9%
Lugo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40