Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pobeda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Lugansk are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Pobeda are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Pobeda hold a 15.0-point power-rating edge (41.8 v 56.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.3% in the Second League - Group 1, while Pobeda holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pobeda
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
56.3%
Pobeda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 16 · GA 6 · avg 3.20/1.20