Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lugansk · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lugansk are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Izberbash are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Lugansk hold a 14.1-point power-rating edge (41.8 v 27.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.6% in the Second League - Group 1, while Lugansk holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lugansk
Probability
56.1%
Model confidence
12.6%
Lugansk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80