Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Lugano are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Lujan are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Lujan hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (55.6 v 61.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 26.4% in the Primera C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 16% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
26.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80