LuganovsLeandro N. Alem

Lugano are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Leandro N. Alem are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lugano hold a 12.5-point power-rating edge (55.6 v 43.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.6% in the Primera C, while Lugano holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.