Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lugano II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Lugano II are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Luzern II are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLD), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Luzern II hold a 3.0-point power-rating edge (43.7 v 46.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 7.6% in the 1. Liga Promotion, while Lugano II holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 79% BTTS chance and 80% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lugano II
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
7.6%
Lugano II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20