GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 7/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Louisville City · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0

Highconfidence

Louisville City are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Hartford Athletic are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Louisville City hold a 6.3-point power-rating edge (52.2 v 45.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.7% in the USL Championship, while Louisville City holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Louisville City

Probability

41.7%

Model confidence

41.7%

Louisville City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Louisville CityDDWDL

GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Hartford AthleticDWWDL

GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Louisville CityHartford Athletic
57.9Attack24.1
43.9Defence68.5
49.1Form38.9
52.2Power45.8
1.20xG0.79
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