Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lorient · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Lorient are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while UNFP are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 3.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Lorient hold a 19.8-point power-rating edge (62.8 v 43.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Lorient holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lorient
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Lorient has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 10 · GA 18 · avg 2.00/3.60