Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lorient · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Lorient are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Nantes are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Lorient hold a 4.1-point power-rating edge (62.8 v 58.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Lorient holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lorient
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Lorient has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60