Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Lokomotiv are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDW), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Surkhon are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lokomotiv hold a 12.8-point power-rating edge (54.1 v 41.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.6% in the Super League, while Lokomotiv holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv
Probability
58.5%
Model confidence
13.6%
Lokomotiv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20