Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Lokomotiv are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Qizilqum are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Lokomotiv hold a 12.0-point power-rating edge (54.1 v 42.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.8% in the Super League, while Lokomotiv holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 39% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv
Probability
53.8%
Model confidence
53.8%
Lokomotiv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20