Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lokomotiv are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Akhmat are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lokomotiv hold a 5.5-point power-rating edge (42.1 v 36.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.4% in the Premier League, while Lokomotiv holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Lokomotiv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40