Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lions · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-1
Lions are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 4.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Olympic are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and Lions hold a 31.7-point power-rating edge (77.2 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 83.3% in the Queensland NPL, while Lions holds the strongest overall chance at 83% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 85% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lions
Probability
83.3%
Model confidence
83.3%
Lions has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 20 · GA 7 · avg 4.00/1.40
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80