Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Libertad are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Aucas are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Aucas hold a 5.7-point power-rating edge (50.3 v 56.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.0% in the Liga Pro, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 22% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 5 · GA 0 · avg 1.00/0.00