Lexingtonvs
Sacramento Republic
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 3/14/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Lexington are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Sacramento Republic are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 54.8 against 55.6. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.9% in the USL Championship, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40