Lexingtonvs
Phoenix Rising
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lexington are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Phoenix Rising are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and lexington hold a 8.4-point power-rating edge (54.8 v 46.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the USL Championship, favouring a draw with 13.3% confidence, a 48% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
28.0%
Model confidence
13.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60