Lexingtonvs
Oakland Roots
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 7/22/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lexington · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lexington are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Oakland Roots are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lexington hold an 8.9-point power-rating edge (54.8 v 45.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.3% in the USL Championship, while Lexington holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lexington
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
Lexington has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80