Lexingtonvs
New Mexico United
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 7/15/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lexington are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while New Mexico United are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and New Mexico United hold a 9.2-point power-rating edge (53.2 v 62.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.8% in the USL Championship, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.8%
Model confidence
35.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00